Weekly Review - 2026-June-19
Despite good news... muddy waters
Last Week’s Comment: Sometimes the market doesn’t care about “bad” news and sometimes it doesn’t care about “good” news. The week started strong in the back of the end of Iran’s war and SpaceX’s IPO but ended again below the 20D SMA level that I highlighted last week. The technical indicators are showing a short-term bearish setup, which we shall welcome to give a rest to this bull market.
Level 1: Why is it happening?
Economic Data: Production: ISM PMI vs. SPX
Analysis: No changes since last week.
Current Situation: Bullish
Future Outlook: Bullish
Economic Data: Production: Dallas & Philadelphia Manufacturing vs. SPX
Analysis: Philadelphia’s reading improved and puts back our bullish future outlook.
Current Situation: Neutral
Future Outlook: Bullish
Economic Data: Consumption: Consumer Sentiment
Analysis: Increase on sentiment, yet still below this year’s highs.
Current Situation: Neutral
Future Outlook: Bullish
Interest Rates: FED, 2yr, 10yr, and 30yr Rates
Analysis: Long term rates had a bearish reversal due to the end of Iran’s war.
Current Situation: Bearish
Future Outlook: Neutral
Context Investors Sentiment: Credit Spreads
Credit spreads move in tandem with the S&P, but when they diverge, that’s often an early warning signal.
Analysis: Spreads continue trending higher, after last week’s hesitation.
Current Situation: Bullish
Outlook: Bullish
Level 1: Why is it happening? Summary
Economic Data (long-term): Bullish/Bullish
Interest Rates: Bearish/Neutral
Investors Sentiment: Bullish/Bullish
Level 2: What is happening?
Price Action: SPX – Long Trend – 20 & 10 years
Analysis: Price re-entered the 10Y channel and quickly broke out again on the upper side. The 20Y channel is still quite far down (circa 7,200 area). We can consider the current situation as extreme with price action outside the upward channel in both 20Y and 10Y.
Current Situation: Bullish
Future Outlook: Bearish
Price Action: RSP – Trend – Weekly & Daily
Analysis: Red week in the weekly chart with a full red week in the daily chart. Daily price found support on the 20D SMA, as in the recent past.
Current Situation: Bullish
Future Outlook: Bearish
Breadth: RSP vs. SPY relative performance
Analysis: RSP (green) vs. SPY (blue) ratio is represented by the black line. RSP reached ATH last week but retraced during the week more than SPY. Relatively breadth was expanding from mid-May lows. As the ratio is above its 20D SMA, we are currently in a “Breadth Expansion” situation with an outlook of “Expansion” as we come out from the “Concentration” lows in mid-May.
Current Situation: Expansion
Future Outlook: Expansion
Breadth: % Stocks above SMAs vs. RSP
Above 200 Daily SMA
Above 20, 50, and 200 Daily SMAs
Analysis: Breadth is expanding and we have room to run. We remain on bullish territory.
Current Situation: Bullish
Future Outlook: Bullish
Breadth: New Highs vs. SPY & RSP
Analysis: No extreme signal, yet we remain on a bullish outlook.
Current Situation: Neutral
Future Outlook: Bullish
Breadth & Volatility: Bullish Pct. Index & McClellan Summation Index
Analysis: Both indicators continue in their bullish areas and turning to point higher.
Current Situation: Bullish
Future Outlook: Bullish
Volatility: Ratio Low Volatility Stocks / SPY vs. SPY and RSP
Analysis: The signal reset in just two weeks from an over-extended situation with a bearish outlook (due to that over-extension) to touch and bounce off the signal line, so coming back to a neutral position, yet remaining in the bullish area.
Current Situation: Bullish
Future Outlook: Bullish
Volatility: VIX vs. SPY & RSP
This chart is mainly to detect market bottoms.
Analysis: Last week’s action made a spike in VIX and broke the downward trend.
Current Situation: Bullish
Future Outlook: Neutral
Options: (Inverted) Put/Call Ratio vs. SPY
Analysis: As explained last week (second chart) we previously had situations similar to the current scenario. As the ratio is expected to lower from the recent highs, we may see a local high in the market followed by a correction during the summer months. Our current situation is bullish but with a bearish outlook.
Current Situation: Neutral
Future Outlook: Bearish
Options: Gamma Exposure – SPY
Analysis: Short-term GEX is negative with support at 735. Long-term GEX is positive with a call-wall at 800.
Current Situation: Bearish
Future Outlook: Bullish
Level 2: What is happening? Summary
Price Action: Bullish/Bearish
Breadth & Volatility: Bullish/Bullish
Options: Neutral/Bearish
Level 3: Where is it happening?
Bulls vs. Bears: RSP vs. RSPD (Cons. Disc. – Bulls) and RSPS (Cons. Sta. – Bears)
Analysis: Ratio (yellow) formed a lower-high pattern last week and it is about to break above its 200D SMA, having already broken up the 50D. Discretionary (green) is also forming a bullish pattern.
Current Situation: Neutral-to-Bullish
Future Outlook: Bullish
Sectors Rotation
Sectors Performance
The market bullish momentum is expanding as we can see in the 1 week performance and even in the 1 month, as technology is not the top performer (despite being the heaviest by market cap., hence driving the S&P and the Nasdaq along with it).
Sectors Bullish Percent Index
Growth Sectors
Value Sectors
Any sectors below their red levels are good opportunities to find great companies at good valuations or buy sector ETFs (buy cheap). Those sectors above their Green levels are candidates to be sold (sell expensive).
Current Situation: Bullish - & - Future Outlook: Bullish:
C. Disc., Industrials, Materials, Financials, Real Estate
Current Situation: Bullish - & - Future Outlook: Bearish:
Healthcare
Current Situation: Bearish - & - Future Outlook: Bullish:
Utilities, C.Staples
Current Situation: Bearish - & - Future Outlook: Bearish:
Technology, Communications, Energy
SPX has a Bullish Current Situation and a Bullish Future Outlook.
Level 3: Where is it happening? Summary
Bulls vs. Bears: Neutral-to-Bullish/Bullish
All Levels Summary and Final Thoughts
Level 1 Summary - The Why
Economic Data (long-term): Bullish/Bullish
Interest Rates: Bearish/Neutral
Investors Sentiment: Bullish/Bullish
Level 2 Summary - The What
Price Action: Bullish/Bearish
Breadth & Volatility: Bullish/Bullish
Options: Neutral/Bearish
Level 3 Summary - The Where
Bulls vs. Bears: Neutral-to-Bullish/Bullish
Level 4: Scanning for opportunities
Great Companies with Great Technicals
Descriptive
Index: Any | Market Cap.: +Mid (+$2B) | Option/Short: Yes/Yes
Avg. Volume: >1M | Relative Vol.: Over 1 | Price: >$10
Fundamental
EPS Growth Next Year: >15% | EPS Growth Past 3 Years: >5% | Sales Growth Past 3 Years: >5%
- Sorted by P/E
Technical
Performance: Quarter Up | Price above 20D SMA & 50D SMA | Beta: >1 | ATR: > 1
S&P500 and Nasdaq New Highs
Descriptive
Index: S&P 500 and Nasdaq | Market Cap.: +Mid (+$2B) | Option/Short: Yes/Yes
Avg. Volume: >1M | Price: >$10
(order by Market Cap desc.)
Technical
50-Day New High
Disclaimer: The content on AMAT Investing is strictly for educational and learning purposes. The author is not a licensed financial advisor and holds no formal financial education. This post does not constitute professional financial advice. All investing involves risk of loss. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
